In his book Future Babble, journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with “experts” who claim to predict future events. Gardner relies on the work of Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, who produced a massive 20-year analysis of 27,450 predictions from 284 experts. Tetlock concluded that as a group the experts did little better, and sometimes considerably worse, than “a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” For example:
In 1914 the British journalist H. N. Norman proclaimed that “there will be no more wars among the six great powers.”
In 1968 the president of Anaconda Copper Mining Company predicted that his company would be successful for 500 years. Less than ten years later, fiber optics trumped copper and Anaconda was out of business.
Also in 1968 Paul Ehrlich predicted that overpopulation would produce a total collapse in the world's food supply. Instead, the world's food supply has increased dramatically.
In 1974 Ehrlich confidently asserted, “If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”
In 2008 experts at Goldman Sachs predicted that oil prices would surge to over $200 per barrel within six months. Instead, the price for petroleum fell to $34 per barrel in those six months.
So why do people pay attention to these so-called “experts” even when they're wrong so much of the time? According to Gardner, human beings hate uncertainty. “Whether sunny or bleak,” Gardner wrote, “convictions about the future satisfy the hunger for certainty. We want to believe. And so we do.” (Trevor Butterworth, "Prophets of Error," The Wall Street Journal, 4-30-11; www.PreachingToday.com)
Daniel Gilbert (a psychology professor at Harvard) came to the same conclusion. Recently (2009), the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index showed “that Americans are smiling less and worrying more… happiness is down and sadness is up… we are getting less sleep… smoking more cigarettes, [and] depression is on the rise.”
Gilbert noted that the real problem is not financial – not having enough money, but something else: uncertainty. People don't know what's going to happen. Will I have a job next week? What's ahead in the future for me?
Professor Gilbert pointed to a Dutch experiment where some subjects were told they would be intensely shocked 20 times. The researchers told a second group that they would receive three strong shocks and 17 mild ones, but they wouldn't know when the intense shocks would come. The results? Subjects in the second group sweated more and experienced faster heart rates. Uncertainty caused their discomfort: they didn't know when the intense shocks would come next.
Daniel Gilbert summarized, “An uncertain future leaves us stranded in an unhappy present with nothing to do but wait… Our national gloom is real enough, but it isn't a matter of insufficient funds. It's a matter of insufficient certainty.” (Daniel Gilbert, “What You Don't Know Makes You Nervous,” 9-21-09; The Week magazine, 6-5-09, p. 14; www.PreachingToday.com)
If that’s the case, then how do we handle the matter of insufficient certainty? How do we face an uncertain future with confidence? How do we move forward into that future with any real hope?
Well, if you have your Bibles, I invite you to turn with me to Daniel 2, Daniel 2, where Daniel, the prophet, writes to a group of people who had been uprooted and deported hundreds of miles away to a nation that had just destroyed their homes and killed many of their friends and neighbors. You talk about an uncertain future. These people faced it; and yet Daniel had a message of hope not only for them (600 years before Christ), but for you and me as well in the 21st Century.
Daniel 2:1-6 In the second year of his reign, Nebuchadnezzar had dreams; his mind was troubled and he could not sleep. So the king summoned the magicians, enchanters, sorcerers and astrologers to tell him what he had dreamed. When they came in and stood before the king, he said to them, “I have had a dream that troubles me and I want to know what it means.” Then the astrologers answered the king in Aramaic, “O king, live forever! Tell your servants the dream, and we will interpret it.” The king replied to the astrologers, “This is what I have firmly decided: If you do not tell me what my dream was and interpret it, I will have you cut into pieces and your houses turned into piles of rubble. But if you tell me the dream and explain it, you will receive from me gifts and rewards and great honor. So tell me the dream and interpret it for me.” (NIV)
Nebuchadnezzar was testing his astrologers to see if they were legitimate. That’s why he asks them to tell him both the dream AND its interpretation. Nebuchadnezzar knew what the dream was. Verse 1 says he had “dreams” (plural), which indicates that his dream was a recurring dream, and people don’t forget recurring dreams. No. Nebuchadnezzar knew what his dream was. He just wants to find out if his astrologers are fakes. You see, if they could tell him the dream which he knew, then he could rely on them to be accurate about its interpretation which he didn’t know. Or as Charles Ryrie put it: they are asked to “recall the past in order to give credence to their predictions about the future.” How do they do?
Daniel 2:7-9 Once more they replied, “Let the king tell his servants the dream, and we will interpret it.” Then the king answered, “I am certain that you are trying to gain time, because you realize that this is what I have firmly decided: If you do not tell me the dream, there is just one penalty for you. You have conspired to tell me misleading and wicked things, hoping the situation will change. So then, tell me the dream, and I will know that you can interpret it for me.” (NIV)
The king had suspected that they were fakes. Now he begins to KNOW that they are.
Daniel 2:10-11 The astrologers answered the king, “There is not a man on earth who can do what the king asks! No king, however great and mighty, has ever asked such a thing of any magician or enchanter or astrologer. What the king asks is too difficult. No one can reveal it to the king except the gods, and they do not live among men.” (NIV)
They so much as admit that they are fakes, telling the king, “No one on earth can do what the king asks.”
Daniel 2:12-13 This made the king so angry and furious that he ordered the execution of all the wise men of Babylon. So the decree was issued to put the wise men to death, and men were sent to look for Daniel and his friends to put them to death. (NIV)
Even though Daniel and his friends did not practice the magic arts like the king’s astrologers and sorcerers, they are classified with the wise men and so they too must die.
When Nebuchadnezzar was troubled about an uncertain future, he turned to some of the wisest people in his kingdom, but they failed him. That’s because no one knows the future. No human being can accurately predict what will happen. So if you want to face an uncertain future with any confidence, if you want to move forward into that future with any hope, then…
DON’T RELY ON HUMAN PREDICTIONS.
Don’t depend on the prognostications of any human being. Don’t trust in the guesses and projections of any man or woman no matter how “wise” they seem. Certainly, don’t consult fortune tellers or any so-called “psychics.”
Just this last fall (2012), the Bloomberg business news reported that a Nevada-based company, the Psychic Friends Network, released a copy of its latest investor presentation as part of their filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Psychic Friends Network had gone bust in 1998 when its parent company filed for bankruptcy. But now it's back, and it's “bigger, bolder, and better than ever,” or so they say.
Although it had no revenue at the time, Psychic Friends promised to “leverage an iconic brand name using new technologies and social media to re-establish Psychic Friends Network as the industry leader for daily horoscopes and psychic advice.” The company's website advertised, “We all want to know what our future holds… For centuries, great leaders have sought and found the vital psychic edge. And, now, so can you!” The company boldly forecasted $64 million of net income by 2015.
But ironically, the first page of its investor presentation included this cautionary note: “Undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements because Psychic Friends Network can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct.” (Jonathan Weil, “The Psychic Friends Network Cannot Predict Its Future,” Bloomberg, 10-19-12; www.PreachingToday.com)
Of course, they cannot give any assurance that their predictions will prove to be correct, because they are all fakes just like Nebuchadnezzar’s magicians and astrologers. So don’t rely on them. Don’t depend on any so-called “psychic” or fortune teller if you want to move forward into an uncertain future with any kind of confidence. Don’t rely on any human predictions. Instead…
RELY ON THE LORD!
Depend on God Himself. Trust in the Sovereign King of the Universe who alone knows and controls the future. That’s what Daniel did.
Daniel 2:14-19a When Arioch, the commander of the king’s guard, had gone out to put to death the wise men of Babylon, Daniel spoke to him with wisdom and tact. He asked the king’s officer, “Why did the king issue such a harsh decree?” Arioch then explained the matter to Daniel. At this, Daniel went in to the king and asked for time, so that he might interpret the dream for him. Then Daniel returned to his house and explained the matter to his friends Hananiah, Mishael and Azariah. He urged them to plead for mercy from the God of heaven concerning this mystery, so that he and his friends might not be executed with the rest of the wise men of Babylon. (NIV)
When Daniel faced an uncertain future, he looked to the Lord for help, and the Lord answered his prayer.
Daniel 2:19b-20 Then Daniel praised the God of heaven and said: “Praise be to the name of God for ever and ever; wisdom and power are his. (NIV)
God KNOWS the future.
Daniel 2:21a He changes times and seasons; he sets up kings and deposes them. (NIV)
God CONTROLS the future.
Daniel 2:21b-23 He gives wisdom to the wise and knowledge to the discerning. He reveals deep and hidden things; he knows what lies in darkness, and light dwells with him. I thank and praise you, O God of my fathers: You have given me wisdom and power, you have made known to me what we asked of you, you have made known to us the dream of the king.” (NIV)
God KNOWS the future. God CONTROLS the future, and God SHOWS the future. He revealed to Daniel the king’s dream and its interpretation.
Daniel 2:24-30 Then Daniel went to Arioch, whom the king had appointed to execute the wise men of Babylon, and said to him, “Do not execute the wise men of Babylon. Take me to the king, and I will interpret his dream for him.” Arioch took Daniel to the king at once and said, “I have found a man among the exiles from Judah who can tell the king what his dream means.” The king asked Daniel (also called Belteshazzar), “Are you able to tell me what I saw in my dream and interpret it?” Daniel replied, “No wise man, enchanter, magician or diviner can explain to the king the mystery he has asked about, but there is a God in heaven who reveals mysteries. He has shown King Nebuchadnezzar what will happen in days to come. Your dream and the visions that passed through your mind as you lay on your bed are these: “As you were lying there, O king, your mind turned to things to come, and the revealer of mysteries showed you what is going to happen. As for me, this mystery has been revealed to me, not because I have greater wisdom than other living men, but so that you, O king, may know the interpretation and that you may understand what went through your mind. (NIV)
Daniel makes sure Nebuchadnezzar understands that GOD and God alone is the revealer of mysteries, that GOD and God alone reveals the future. And what an amazing future it is! In the next few verses, God outlines all of human history from Daniel’s day, 600 years before Christ, until the end of all human rule. Look at it…
Daniel 2:31-33 “You looked, O king, and there before you stood a large statue—an enormous, dazzling statue, awesome in appearance. The head of the statue was made of pure gold, its chest and arms of silver, its belly and thighs of bronze, its legs of iron, its feet partly of iron and partly of baked clay. (NIV)
Now, there are some important things to notice about this great statue. There are five parts: a head of gold, a chest and arms of silver, a belly and thighs of bronze, legs of iron, and feet of clay mixed with iron. The materials that make up the statue get more and more inferior as you go from top to bottom. It starts with gold and ends with clay.
Most people think that human civilization is getting better and better, more and more enlightened, as history moves along. But God’s opinion is that human civilization is getting worse and worse, more inferior as history moves towards its close.
More than that, the metals increase in hardness as it goes from top to bottom, but they also decrease in weight. Gold has a higher specific gravity than silver. Silver has a higher specific gravity than bronze. Bronze has a higher specific gravity than iron, and iron has a higher specific gravity than clay.
In other words, the statue is top-heavy. It’s unstable and easily toppled, and that’s the way it is with human government. It is unstable and easily toppled. Think about it. The cold weather of Russia’s winter stopped Napoleon. A forgotten bridge across the Rhine led to Hitler’s defeat. The Germans thought they had destroyed all the bridges over the Rhine River, but they forgot one; and that’s the one that led the Allies right into the heart of Germany. Candles brought down the iron curtain in Eastern Europe. Christians had gathered around a church in Romania, each lighting a candle and singing hymns in support of a pastor who was being mistreated by the communist authorities. Not too much longer, those authorities were gone.
I wonder, what’s going to bring the mighty United States down? You see, no human government can stand for long. They are all easily toppled, and one day they will all be gone. Listen as David continues to describe Nebuchadnezzar’s dream to him.
Daniel 2:34-35 While you were watching, a rock was cut out, but not by human hands. It struck the statue on its feet of iron and clay and smashed them. Then the iron, the clay, the bronze, the silver and the gold were broken to pieces at the same time and became like chaff on a threshing floor in the summer. The wind swept them away without leaving a trace. But the rock that struck the statue became a huge mountain and filled the whole earth. (NIV)
Most people think human civilization has risen out of the dust and is headed for a golden age. God, on the other hand, sees human civilization descending from a golden age into dust. One day, all human government will be blown away like chaff in the wind. We are not evolving into an “new world order.” We are devolving into an old world disorder. Our politicians talk about “hope and change,” but it’s no change for the better. God says it’s only going to get worse and worse until Jesus comes.
So what does all this mean? What is the interpretation of Nebuchadnezzar’s dream? Look at verse 36.
Daniel 2:36-38 “This was the dream, and now we will interpret it to the king. You, O king, are the king of kings. The God of heaven has given you dominion and power and might and glory; in your hands he has placed mankind and the beasts of the field and the birds of the air. Wherever they live, he has made you ruler over them all. You are that head of gold. (NIV)
Nebuchadnezzar, representing the Babylonian Empire, is the head of gold, the dominant world ruler at the time. Now, don’t lose sight of the fact that Daniel tells him, “GOD has given you dominion and power.” GOD is the one in charge. GOD is the one who deposes kings and raises up others (vs.21).
Daniel 2:39a After you, another kingdom will arise, inferior to yours.
From history, we know this was the Medo-Persian Empire. Not long after Nebuchadnezzar died, the Medes and the Persians overran the Babylonian empire and became the next dominant world power.
Daniel 2:39b Next, a third kingdom, one of bronze, will rule over the whole earth.
That was Greece. Alexander the Great moved east in 330 B.C. to conquer the Medo-Persian empire and became a world ruler.
Remember, this part of the statue includes the two thighs (vs.32). That’s because, unlike Babylon and Medo-Persia, both of which ruled only in the east, Greece ruled in the east AND the west. And God showed this to Daniel over 200 years before it happened!
You see, only God knows the future, so only God can be trusted as we move forward into an uncertain future.
Daniel 2:40 Finally – Daniel says to Nebuchadnezzar – there will be a fourth kingdom strong as iron—for iron breaks and smashes everything—and as iron breaks things to pieces, so it will crush and break all the others. (NIV)
I can’t think of a better description than this of the old Roman Empire, which ruled the world with an iron hand. Rome overtook Greece in 63 B.C. and was the dominant world power in the time of Christ and for a few hundred years after Christ. Rome, too, ruled in the east and the west as the two iron legs indicate.
Again, I am amazed at the accuracy of biblical prophecy, and this is just an overview. Daniel’s prophecies will get more and more detailed as we move along in this book, which can only lead us to one conclusion. This book, the Bible, comes from God, because only God KNOWS the future. That’s because God CONTROLS the future, which is moving forward just as He planned.
Now, if these past events happened exactly as God showed Daniel they would, then we can be certain that future events will also unfold exactly as God said they would. Remember, all these events were in the future when God revealed them to Daniel. Now, only the last part is yet in the future, our future. Do you want to know what God says about our future and the end of all human civilization?
Daniel 2:41-43 Just as you saw that the feet and toes were partly of baked clay and partly of iron, so this will be a divided kingdom; yet it will have some of the strength of iron in it, even as you saw iron mixed with clay. As the toes were partly iron and partly clay, so this kingdom will be partly strong and partly brittle. And just as you saw the iron mixed with baked clay, so the people will be a mixture and will not remain united, any more than iron mixes with clay. (NIV)
Doesn’t this sound just like our world today? Everybody is pushing for “world peace,” trying to bring the nations together as one big happy family. Since the 1980’s, we have been training our children not to be good U.S. citizens, but to participate in a “global society.”
It’s like mixing clay and iron. We’re trying to bring the nations together, but they don’t really come together into one cohesive unit. At best, we can broker a precarious peace between nations, but the slightest little thing can shatter that peace like clay.
Right now, President Obama is trying to decide how to respond to the Syrian government’s use of biological warfare on its own citizens. Even though Obama has sent American warships into the Mediterranean Sea, he’s afraid of any military response, because Syria has promised to bomb Israel if the United States interferes. Well, you know what that could lead to – World War III, especially with Russia opposing the United States’ efforts to respond, and sending her own warships into the Mediterranean Sea.
That’s the state of human civilization at the end. There is a great push for unity, but it’s like mixing clay and iron, which is easily shattered.
Actually, the iron in the feet and toes of the statue indicate a continuation (or a revival) of the Old Roman Empire, but in a weakened form. And that is exactly what we see happening in the area once occupied by the Old Roman Empire today – Europe. On January 1, 1993, Western Europe became a single economic market, and later that same year, on November 1, 1993, 345 million people became citizens of the new “European Union.” Since the fall of the Iron Curtain, Eastern Europe has come on board, along with Turkey. And right now, according to a report just out last month (August 2013), a select group of European Union foreign ministers are working on a plan to create a super president for the European Union. This proposed new super president of the European Union would be the overall powerful leader of Europe with responsibility over Europe's economic matters, all foreign policy, and any European military operation. (Jimmy DeYoung, Jimmy DeYoung’s News Update, August 20, 2013, www.ProphecyToday.com)
The future, exactly as God showed Daniel more than 2,500 years ago, is coming together right before our very eyes! The last stages of human civilization are upon us.
Now, that would scare most people, but that excites me, because of the next part of Daniel’s prophecy. You see, the end of human government is not the end of the world. It is the beginning of Christ’s rule on this earth. Look at how Daniel described it in verse 44: In the time of those kings – i.e., in the time of the last human rulers.
Daniel 2:44-45 “In the time of those kings, the God of heaven will set up a kingdom that will never be destroyed, nor will it be left to another people. It will crush all those kingdoms and bring them to an end, but it will itself endure forever. This is the meaning of the vision of the rock cut out of a mountain, but not by human hands—a rock that broke the iron, the bronze, the clay, the silver and the gold to pieces. “The great God has shown the king what will take place in the future. The dream is true and the interpretation is trustworthy.” (NIV)
Jesus WILL reign on this earth! There is coming a day, and quite possibly very soon, when we will no longer have to put up with dictators and tyrants, with corrupt human rulers, or with the bad decisions of presidents and congressmen. There is coming a day, and quite possibly very soon, when we will no longer have to endure godless, human governments.
Jesus shall reign where’r the sun
Does his successive journeys run;
His kingdom spread from shore to shore,
Till moons shall wax and wane no more. (Isaac Watts)
Oh, what a relief this must have been for the Jewish captives in Babylon when they first heard this prophecy. And oh, what a relief it is for God’s people today, many of whom are suffering under oppressive governments. God KNOWS the future, because God CONTROLS the future. And the future is bright for those of us who belong to God’s Kingdom.
There can only be one response to this, and that’s the response of King Nebuchadnezzar before Daniel. Look at verse 46.
Daniel 2:46-47 Then King Nebuchadnezzar fell prostrate before Daniel and paid him honor and ordered that an offering and incense be presented to him. The king said to Daniel, “Surely your God is the God of gods and the Lord of kings and a revealer of mysteries, for you were able to reveal this mystery.” (NIV)
Nebuchadnezzar could only bow before Daniel’s God and worship Him, and that’s the only thing we can do before such a God! Bow before Him and look only to Him when we face an uncertain future. Don’t rely on human predictions. Rely on the Lord, who alone knows and controls the future.
It’s a lesson Phyllis Ten Elshof learned when she battled the fear of recurrent breast cancer. She first tried to find comfort in statistics.
In her book, What Cancer Cannot Do, Phyllis talks about the “lady in pink” who wheeled her down the hall of the hospital for a biopsy. “You're gonna be okay,” the lady in pink whispered. “Eighty percent of breast lumps aren't cancer.”
Phyllis writes, “I stifled a sigh. So far, statistics had not been in my favor. My breast lump, which was big enough to be seen by the naked eye, hadn't shown up on a mammogram. Mammograms are effective only 80 percent of the time.
“The volunteer's prediction wasn't accurate, either; I did have breast cancer. So why, years after surviving a mastectomy and treatment for breast cancer, was I still drawn to survival statistics like a mosquito to a lamp—especially after hearing that a fellow survivor had recurred?
“The size of my lump plus five positive nodes drove down my five-year survival rate to less than 25 percent. What's more, I, like so many other cancer survivors, had learned how senseless statistics were in forecasting survival. As one doctor said, ‘Maybe only 10 percent of patients with your type and stage of cancer are cured, but within that 10 percent, your odds are 0 percent or 100 percent.’
“So what drove me to statistics?” Phyllis asks. “Perhaps it's the kind of fear that drove King Saul to consult a medium on the eve of a battle that would later claim his life (1 Samuel 28). God had stopped communicating with the king through ordinary means, so Saul tried to conjure up the spirit of Samuel to tell him what to do. Saul got the message all right, but it knocked him to the ground.”
Then Phyllis concludes, “Cancer knocks us to the ground, too. Still, rather than running to statistics (or doctors that quote them) to ease our fears, we should trust in our Heavenly Father, who alone knows how long we will live. (Phyllis Ten Elshof, What Cancer Cannot Do, Zondervan, 2006; www.PreachingToday. com)
Many things about tomorrow
I don’t seem to understand;
But I know who holds tomorrow,
And I know who holds my hand. (Ira Stanphill)
